Conflict in the Middle East: Why it’s vital to focus on your long-term plan and cut through the “noise”

In recent months, you may have found yourself keeping a close eye on developments in the Middle East.

This is entirely understandable given the scale and seriousness of the conflict. Events like these can have devastating consequences for lives and communities.

As such, it’s natural to feel concerned not only about the broader global implications but also about how these events might influence markets and your personal finances. 

Periods of geopolitical uncertainty can lead to increased market volatility, which can feel unsettling as an investor.

Indeed, IFA Magazine reports that the recent conflict prompted a notable rise in outflows from equity funds in March 2025, increasing from £927 million in February to £1.44 billion just one month later. 

At times like this, it might seem sensible to adjust your financial plan or sell investments in an effort to protect your wealth. 

However, it’s vital to separate emotional reactions to distressing global events from the decisions you make about your long-term future. 

Continue reading to discover why cutting through the “noise” and remaining focused on your financial plans could help you stay on track.

The conflict in the Middle East has caused some volatility, but events are still moving

The conflict in the Middle East has been one of the most significant global developments so far this year. 

Tensions escalated rapidly earlier in the year, with several nations, such as the US and Israel, launching strikes on Iran. 

At one stage, disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, led to a considerable rise in oil prices.

Brent crude increased significantly in price as markets reacted to the risk of supply disruption. Google Finance states that the price of a barrel climbed from $66.60 on 13 February 2026 to $109.77 on 6 April. 

Following talks of a ceasefire, the price of a barrel of crude fell to $94.75 on 8 April, only to climb back above $100 on Monday 13 April as peace talks seemed to be failing. 

This shows just how sensitive markets can be to geopolitical events, and how quickly sentiment can change. 

However, it’s important to take note of the speed at which these changes can occur. Events have shifted within days, sometimes hours, and market reactions often follow just as quickly.

By the time the news reaches you, markets might already have adjusted. And, by the time you act on that information, the situation might have changed again entirely. 

It’s vital to remember that markets have often recovered after periods of short-term volatility

While events in the Middle East might have caused you concern, it’s important to note that short-term volatility is a natural part of investing. 

Indeed, markets have experienced many periods of uncertainty over time, stemming from events ranging from geopolitical conflicts to economic downturns. 

Yet, despite these challenges, the markets have historically trended upwards over time. 

According to AJ Bell, the FTSE 100 stock market index dropped by nearly 4% in a day following Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine. 

If you believed further declines were on the horizon and you sold your investments to protect your wealth, you would have turned paper losses into real ones.

The same source states that the FTSE 100 recovered most of that decline after the West imposed sanctions on Russia. 

As you can see, it’s nearly impossible to predict how evolving global events might affect markets. 

Read more: Why it’s so important to base your financial plan on the knowns, not the speculation

The phrase “time in the market, not timing the market” exists for a reason, after all. In fact, the market’s best trading days often occur after its worst. 

Fidelity reports that if you’d invested £100 in the FTSE 100 at the end of 1991, reinvesting your dividends until the end of February 2026, you would have grown your initial investment to £1,500 over 34 years.

However, if you’d missed just the best 10 days over this period, you’d only have £750 – half as much. Missing the best 20 days would leave you with £470, or £215 for missing the best 40 days.

Maintaining a disciplined approach and remaining focused on your long-term plans, regardless of geopolitical events, could prove far more effective than reacting to short-term developments and attempting to time the market.

Market “noise” can cloud your judgment and feed investment anxiety

Granted, it can be easier said than done to remain calm and focused on the horizon when the value of your portfolio seems to be falling.

A well-diversified portfolio that spreads risk across various sectors, asset classes, and geographic regions can help you avoid knee-jerk reactions to short-term volatility.

Read more: Exploring the many benefits of a diversified portfolio

It’s also important to recognise how market “noise” can affect your decision-making abilities during a period of uncertainty. 

When significant global events are occurring, the way they’re reported can sometimes amplify feelings of fear and urgency. 

Constant updates, breaking news alerts, and speculative commentary can create the impression that you must act immediately. 

In reality, making decisions based on this noise might only work against you. 

For instance, there have been plenty of sensationalist headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East.

If, after seeing these, you panic and decide to sell your investments, you might simply crystallise losses.

Some emotional biases can reinforce this, such as:

• Loss aversion, which means you feel the impact of loss twice as strongly as the pleasure of gains

• Herd mentality, when you follow the actions of others without considering whether they align with your own goals.

Taking a step back and recognising these influences could help you make more measured decisions. It might even be prudent to limit your exposure to news as much as possible if you find you’re reacting emotionally to updates regarding the Middle East.

Get in touch

We could help you stay focused on your carefully crafted long-term plan and cut through any noise regarding conflict in the Middle East.

Email info@athertonyork.co.uk or call us on 0208 882 2979 to find out more.

Please note

This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

All information is correct at the time of writing and is subject to change in the future.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.